Feature Story

August 28, 2008

Saving lives through smarter hurricane evacuations

From EurekAlert! - Breaking News:

Hundreds of lives and hundreds of millions of dollars could potentially be saved if emergency managers could make better and more timely critical decisions when faced with an approaching hurricane.

Michael Metzger's software tool, created as part of the research for his PhD dissertation, could allow emergency managers to better decide early on whether and when to order evacuations --- and, crucially, to do so more efficiently by clearing out people in stages.

By analyzing data from 50 years of hurricanes and detailed information on several major ones, and by comparing the information available at various times as a hurricane approached with data from the actual storm's passage, Metzger said he was able to produce software that provides a scientifically consistent framework to plan for an oncoming hurricane.

His approach uses the best available hurricane track models developed over the years, but even these can be wrong half of the time --- a degree of uncertainty that further complicates the job for local emergency managers.

For example, a poorly planned evacuation could cause roadway gridlock and trap evacuees in their cars --- leaving them exposed to the dangers of inland flooding.

With his system, officials would get the information needed to "pull the trigger earlier, and phase the evacuation," he says, and thus potentially save many lives.

Metzger, who is a research assistant in the MIT Engineering Systems Division's Center for Engineering Systems Fundamentals, and a PhD student in the Operations Research Center, received a second-place award out of more than 100 entries from the U.S. Department of Homeland Security earlier this year for the work.

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