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Feature Story 
February 6, 2008
Recessionary Conditions Appear in the Job Market

From Economic Policy Institute:

The number of jobs in the nation fell last month for the first time in almost five years, the clearest signal yet that the labor market is in a recession or teetering on the brink of one.

Averaging over the past three months, the BLS's Establishment Survey showed that payrolls grew by a scant 42,000 jobs per month, compared to 169,000 a month over the comparable period one year ago.

Excepting health care, most industries across the economy either shed jobs or grew considerably more slowly than in recent months.

Housing market pressures were evident in both construction hiring and unemployment.

The service sector, including government, posted only 34,000 net new jobs in January, after averaging 132,000 per month over the past year.

Combined with the loss of jobs, this led to a 0.3 decline in the index of total hours worked over the month.

Before the revision, the growth rate over the entire cycle, from March 2001 to December 2007, was only 4.5%, compared to job growth of about 20% in each of the last two business cycles.

Post revision, the increase drops to 4.2%.

In other words, job creation was exceptionally weak thus far in the 2001 business cycle, a cycle which may well have already peaked.

Given the critical importance of the labor market to the economic well-being of American families, policy makers must continue to address the developing recessionary conditions.

Long-term unemployment appears to be on the rise, and most industries are retrenching.

The Economic Policy Institute JOBS PICTURE is published each month upon release of the Bureau of Labor Statistics' employment report.

Read more from this post.

Posted on February 6, 2008 10:45 PM


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