Feature Story

January 28, 2008

Presidential Oratory Can Trump Ideology for Voters, Research Shows Most Highly Educated Voters Swayed by Rhetoric

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To influence voters, especially those without strong ideological beliefs, presidential candidates should pay as much attention to their oratorical skills as to their stances on issues, according to research by Vanderbilt University political scientist Christian Grose.

"We find that most voters prefer more sophisticated speech in their presidential candidates," said Grose, who has co-authored an article on the importance of rhetoric and persuasion in presidential campaigns.

Sometimes, however, voters can be convinced to vote contrary to their issue preferences if a candidate's rhetoric is impressive enough."

The findings also show that highly educated voters are more likely than those with fewer years of schooling to be influenced by complex speech.

To evaluate the quality of emotional connections by various candidates, the researchers used the Roderick Hart's Diction algorithm, which attempts to measure the tone of speech.

The researchers also used data from the National Election Survey, 1976-2004, to determine whom people voted for in the general presidential elections and whether or not they were in agreement with the candidates on the issues.

"When a voter is close to a candidate on the issues, yet that candidate is a poor speaker, the voter will still vote for that candidate," Grose said.

Even though the research focused on general elections for the presidency, the race for the 2008 Democratic presidential nomination is pertinent to these findings, according to Grose.

Barack Obama has succeeded in moving up in the polls in part due to what some perceive as superior rhetorical skills compared to Sen.

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